World Cup Predictions - Knockout Stages

Well, given my predictions for the first round, the round-of-sixteen would look like this:

México vs. Nigeria

England vs. Serbia
Netherlands vs. Italy

Brazil vs. Switzerland

Argentina vs. South Africa

Germany vs. United States

Paraguay vs. Cameroon

Spain vs. Ivory Coast

México vs. Nigeria:

Well at first I thought this looked like the most interesting match of the round until I took another look at Nigeria's squad. It's deep, and they've got great players at every position. It's clear that on technical ability they're a superior side to México. Expect that technical superiority to prevail but in spite of the result perhaps being a bit more obvious than I first thought, look for this to be a high-scoring thriller, 5-3 maybe? Regardless, this is going to be a match I don't want to miss.

England vs. Serbia:

Serbia... will not manage a shot on target in what will be an absolute masterclass from Rooney, Gerrard, Lampard, and co. Expect this to be a demonstration of football at it's absolute technical best.

Netherlands vs. Italy:

This is will be the most forgettable match of the tournament. A 0-0 draw will be turn into 1-1 after extra time. Buffon will save Italy's blushes with some incredible stops in the shootout. Italy through 3-1 on penalties.

Brazil vs. Switzerland:

Looks like a no-brainer but expect the Swiss to pull out a good performance. I don't think it'll be enough to send them through, but it'll be enough to worry Brazil.

Argentina vs. South Africa:

Home support is great, but it can only get you so far. The South Africans will certainly put up a good fight against Argentina, but Argentina's superior class will pull through. Look for some inspirational individual football from the Argentine's with Gonzalo Higuaín in particular shining. The lack of team attack, however, will be a worry for the Argentinians in spite of their rather easy stroll through to the next round. The biggest talking point of this match will be an off-color/racist comment or two made by Maradona about some of South Africa's players being undisciplined.

Germany vs. USA:

I will be accused of letting my bias get in the way on this one, but I honestly believe this will be the greatest day in American footballing history. Inspired by Barack Obama's presence, and with the disgraceful (for the refereeing) defeat to the opponents in 2002 still fresh in their minds, the American "Motley Crew" (as they'll come to be called for their racial diversity in a new marketing and underdog campaign by FIFA who will need to support someone after South Africa goes out) will defend ruthlessly and hit on the counter-attack. Expect Donovan and Beasley (if he plays) to have massive games. They'll be the ones who remember that defeat best.

Paraguay vs. Cameroon:

This will be one of the best games of this stage of the tournament but one of the least watched and least remembered. Expect late, late goals to decide this one - maybe even an overtime game. The Cameroonians will go through to the next round, but it'll be a fantastic game.

Spain vs. Ivory Coast:

Spain will be thanking their lucky stars that they didn't have to play Brazil in the first knockout round, and that could cost them early on. Falling asleep for even a minute at the back will cost them dearly, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go down a goal early. But Spain will have all the possession and that will wear down the Ivorians. It will be a sad day for them as the bad luck of the draw (pitting them against the two best teams in the world in the first four games) will cause them to go out.

Quarter-Finals

Nigeria vs. England

Netherlands vs. Brazil

Argentina vs. USA

Cameroon vs. Spain

Nigeria vs. England

Heartbreak for the Nigerians as England score two goals in overtime to win a brilliant game 3-1. Crouch will be the man (and a half) of the hour after coming on for an injured Rooney late in the second half. This will be the game highlighted that highlights the miserable refereeing at the World Cup, and the Nigerians will go home feeling victimized. Hopefully they can take solace in a having reached the quarter-finals of the world's greatest sporting event.

Netherlands vs. Brazil

Expect Brazil to walk all over the Netherlands. The Dutch are great in midfield with the ball, but without it, they're not at their best. The "total football" of the Netherlands will meet the "Jogo Bonito" of the Brazilians and get absolutely destroyed. Cruyff and Pele will be watching together from a box and Pele will say something to the effect of the Dutch still having a good shot of winning the World Cup after Brazil wins by four goals. Dunga will be furious that his team decided to play pretty football, but none of the players will listen to him, and in spite of substituting three of his attacking players with defenders in the late stages of the game to preserve a four goal lead, the Brazilians will continue to attack and score another as the game's in its dying stages.

Argentina vs. USA

Lionel Messi will show why he's the best player in the world, an American defender will get sent off in the first half for stopping a clear goal-scoring opportunity and the USA will go out with a rather weak performance. The American public, uninspired by the success of the national team, will continue not going to MLS matches.

Cameroon vs. Spain

Cameroon will be exhausted after their grueling match with Paraguay and Spain will progress rather easily. This match will be remembered for two wonder goals, one in which every Spanish player on the field touches the ball twice without losing possession and a Jean Makoun strike from 30 meters.

Semifinals:

England vs. Brazil

Argentina vs. Spain

England vs. Brazil:

The first of two highly anticipated semi-finals will feature an extraordinarily defensive lineup from Dunga, who will be looking to prove a point to his team. Unfortunately for Dunga, the English will find a way to exploit the Brazilians' catenaccio style defense and go out 1-0 winners. Everone will be criticizing Dunga after the match for not having played to his team's strengths. He won't care.

Argentina vs. Spain:

Talk of conspiracy abound as Lionel Messi plays his worst football since he was 16 (making him only the eighth best player in the world). Maradona will claim that Messi threw the game so that his teammates from Barcelona (Pedro, Iniesta, Xavi, Puyol, and Piqué will all start this game) can go through to the final and attempt to banish him from international football. Unfortunately Aguero will have played even worse and Maradona will be accused of favoring his son-in-law after he substitutes Messi and will be fired immediately after the loss.

Third place match, Brazil vs. Argentina:

This will be the first time in the history of the World Cup that a third place game features any red cards, and it won't just feature one, it'll feature three, as the ever-contentious rivalry between the South American giants will boil over into a rugby style free-for-all. Expect Javier Mascherano to receive a 5-10 game international ban after he commits an shockingly horrifying tackle that breaks a Brazil player's ankle.

Final, England vs. Spain:

It's all Spain. It'll be a relatively simple match for Spain with England not coming close until the 85th minute and down two goals it'll be too little too late. Spain will be the first European team to win the World Cup outside of Europe.

World Cup Predictions

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France.

On paper, this might not look like a very interesting group, but you take a deeper look and its fascinating. France look the clear favorites, but given how they struggled (and cheated) against Ireland to get to South Africa, it's difficult to bet on them. Malouda is in great form, but neither Benzema nor Henry have been playing. South Africa look like the team on the weak end of the spectrum, but they'll have home support, and no host nation has ever NOT made it to the second round, despite the US and South Korea looking supremely likely to do so in 1994 and 2002 respectively. And anyone who watched South Africa play football at the Confederation's Cup last summer knows that they know the meaning of the beautiful game. You have to say they were unlikely not to have beaten Spain in the third place game. Mexico and Uruguay are both teams with lots of talent. "El Chori" - Gonzalez Castro - for Uruguay has been lighting up the Baleares all season long with he speed and touch down the left flank, and Mexico has more young talent than it knows what to do with. Andres Guardado of Deportivo is another one who's been a star for a top-half team in La Liga this year.

1) Mexico, 2) South Africa, 3) France, 4) Uruguay

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria South Korea, Greece

This is rather more complicated looking group. After Argentina's struggles in world cup qualifying you would have expected them to struggle in the group stages. Fortunately for them, they drew one of the weakest groups. None of Nigeria, South Korea, or Greece looks like it has what it takes to challenge Messi, Mascherano, and Maradona. And how can you bet against a team where Lisandro Lopez or Diego Milito is the sixth best forward? The Nigerians will want to shine on African soil, and I expect their talented attacking options (Yakubu, Martins, Kanu, Obinha, and Uche) to keep two of the most disciplined sides at the World Cup out of the second round. It will require Nigeria to be disciplined at the back, but if Obi Mikel gets back from injury in time, he will provide protection for a back line anchored by Joseph Yobo.

1) Argentina, 2) Nigeria, 3) Greece, 4) South Korea

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia

England will be thanking their lucky stars because the draw has been more than kind to them. The rest will be hoping England lose focus thinking about their second-round match and slip up, but with the quality of Rooney, Gerrard/Lampard, and Terry/Ferdinand down the center, it doesn't look likely. It wouldn't be out of the question that Slovenia could go home without a point, but both Algeria and the USA will be hoping that Slovenia can steal two points from the other. Expect the USA to beat Algeria and for it not to be an issue. Unless you like watching England walk over weaker teams, expect this to be a pretty boring group. Both the USA and Slovenia play very defensive football.

1) England, 2) USA, 3) Algeria, 4) Slovenia

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana

Some have termed this the "other group of death" but it doesn't look THAT strong to me. Ghana, Australia, and Serbia all have solid teams, not to speak of Germany. England, of course, will be hoping Germany don't stutter at all in the group stage because if they do, it would set up a classic round-of-sixteen match between England and Germany. That should be incentive enough for the Germans to make quick work of the rest of the teams in the group. Ghana looks to have a bit of a thin lineup so despite their exceptional performance in 2006, don't expect too much noise from them, especially if Essien is injured. For as much as everyone has been talking about Australia, they don't look particularly good on paper. Tim Cahill and a reinvigorated Harry Kewell could cause damage, but it doesn't look like a team that's going to challenge any of the big guns, as they did Italy in 2006. Serbia look to be the best of the rest in this group. Any team with Vidic and Ivanovic anchoring the back line is going to be tough to beat, but they've got talent going forward too in Jovanovic and Zigic. That'll set up a lovely second-round match in witch Peter Crouch and Nikola Zigic and battle it out for most awkward looking footballer award.

1) Germany, 2) Serbia, 3) Australia, 4) Ghana

Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon

This has to be the most fascinating group of the entire tournament (unless you're a fan of groups of death). Not one of these teams is even marginally bad. Nobody doubts the Dutch talent. A team that can but Robben, Sneijder, Van Bommel, Van der Vaart, and De Jong in the same midfield has a chance to win it all, but the Dutch were dealt an easy qualifying campaign and have never succeeded in the big matchs. I don't doubt their capacity to get out of the group stages, but I won't be surprised if they don't because all of these teams are capable of beating all the rest. Denmark have been turned into a top class outfit by coach Morten Olsen, and with Agger and Kjaer at the back and Sorenson in goal, it'll be tough to score on them. Bendtner may be downright comical in front of goal for Arsenal, but he's been a scoring machine for his country. A well managed, solid, team unit is a strong advantage that few teams have at the World Cup, but the Danes do, and it could well be the advantage that puts them through. That said, don't bet against a disciplined Japan side who's manager has said they should be thinking about reaching the semi-finals. Most of the European press have laughed that remark off as putting undue pressure on an underwhelming side, but if it provokes the desired reaction, Japan could be a tricky team. And what of Cameroon? Eto'o, Eto'o, Eto'o. Well that's all most people know about, but Bassong and Assou-Ekotto are good at the back, and Alex Song and Jean Makoun are excellent in midfield. And what of another Mallorquino player, Pierre Webó? He's been great for the Spanish islanders as well this season. With home field advantage, they might just go through.

1) Netherlands, 2) Cameroon, 3) Denmark, 4) Japan

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia

This looks to be one of the most straight-forward groups at the tournament, but you never know. Italy are clearly the best side, despite an aging group of corps players, but they always start slow in World Cups (remember that 1-1 draw with the USA?). And New Zealand are really just there for the show. Slovakia might feel unlucky that Paraguay have drawn Italy in the first game, and it wouldn't be out of the real of possibility for Paraguay to beat Italy in that match. Look for Benfica striker Oscar Cardozo to make a lot of noise at the world cup, and if he does so, he could well be looking at himself in the jersey of one of the biggest clubs in the world come August. I'll be expecting Paraguay's attacking football to get them through to the next round, but don't expect Slovakia to go down without a great fight.

1) Paraguay, 2) Italy, 3) Slovakia, 4) New Zealand

Group G: Brazil, Ivory Coast, North Korea, Portugal

Poor Ivory Coast. Four years ago, people were talking about them as the best African side ever to go to the World Cup, but they were drawn with Argentina, the Netherlands, and Serbia and Montenegro, and were unfortunate not to get out of the group stage. The team has only gotten better in the last four years and is really on the same level as some of the biggest teams in the world now. With the brothers Touré and Didier Drogba, you don't need much else, but they've got a long list of talent that includes Emmanuel Eboue, Didier Zokora, Ndri Romaric, Aruna Dindane, and Salomon Kalou. I think being on African soil will give them the advantage they deserve to get out of this group at the expense of Portugal. Expect the whining brigade of Simao, Ronaldo, and Nani to be out in full force. They're a talented side, obviously, but Pepe, Miguel, and Ricardo Carvalho all starved for playing time for one reason or another, look for the back line to be a bit shaky. The first match between the Ivory Coast and Portugal will be the decider, but it'll be the decider for second place in the group. There might be two or three teams who can beat Brazil at this World Cup, but it doesn't look like any of the other three in this group will be capable. North Korea will be competing with New Zealand to avoid finishing last. Expect it to come down to goal difference.

1) Brazil, 2) Ivory Coast, 3) Portugal, 4) North Korea

Group H: Spain, Chile, Honduras, Switzerland

Spain will be clear favorites in this group, but it's another one that gets complicated after that. Chile, Honduras, and Switzerland all have decent sides, and don't expect any of those games to be a blowout. It wouldn't be inconceivable either that one of them could bring a tough game to Spain. Spain might have their eyes set on a potential second-round match-up with one of Brazil, Ivory Coast, or Portugal, and if they do, that could allow one of the other teams the break it needs to get the extra point and go through. Chile are a team solid throughout without any real standout players. They'll be suffering from added pressure after finishing second in CONMEBOL WCQ, and that could give the edge to a Swiss side who have a number of players (Inler, Fernandes, Huggel, Barnetta, N'Kufo, Derdiyok, Vonlanthen) who have more experience in big matches. I'll put my money on the Swiss finishing second as a means of compensating for their disappointing exit on home soil during the 2008 Euros. Honduras don't have a bad side, but their inexperience will get the better of them.

1) Spain, 2) Switzerland, 3) Chile, 4) Honduras