Friday, May 7, 2010

World Cup Predictions

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France.
On paper, this might not look like a very interesting group, but you take a deeper look and its fascinating. France look the clear favorites, but given how they struggled (and cheated) against Ireland to get to South Africa, it's difficult to bet on them. Malouda is in great form, but neither Benzema nor Henry have been playing. South Africa look like the team on the weak end of the spectrum, but they'll have home support, and no host nation has ever NOT made it to the second round, despite the US and South Korea looking supremely likely to do so in 1994 and 2002 respectively. And anyone who watched South Africa play football at the Confederation's Cup last summer knows that they know the meaning of the beautiful game. You have to say they were unlikely not to have beaten Spain in the third place game. Mexico and Uruguay are both teams with lots of talent. "El Chori" - Gonzalez Castro - for Uruguay has been lighting up the Baleares all season long with he speed and touch down the left flank, and Mexico has more young talent than it knows what to do with. Andres Guardado of Deportivo is another one who's been a star for a top-half team in La Liga this year.
1) Mexico, 2) South Africa, 3) France, 4) Uruguay

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria South Korea, Greece
This is rather more complicated looking group. After Argentina's struggles in world cup qualifying you would have expected them to struggle in the group stages. Fortunately for them, they drew one of the weakest groups. None of Nigeria, South Korea, or Greece looks like it has what it takes to challenge Messi, Mascherano, and Maradona. And how can you bet against a team where Lisandro Lopez or Diego Milito is the sixth best forward? The Nigerians will want to shine on African soil, and I expect their talented attacking options (Yakubu, Martins, Kanu, Obinha, and Uche) to keep two of the most disciplined sides at the World Cup out of the second round. It will require Nigeria to be disciplined at the back, but if Obi Mikel gets back from injury in time, he will provide protection for a back line anchored by Joseph Yobo.
1) Argentina, 2) Nigeria, 3) Greece, 4) South Korea

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia
England will be thanking their lucky stars because the draw has been more than kind to them. The rest will be hoping England lose focus thinking about their second-round match and slip up, but with the quality of Rooney, Gerrard/Lampard, and Terry/Ferdinand down the center, it doesn't look likely. It wouldn't be out of the question that Slovenia could go home without a point, but both Algeria and the USA will be hoping that Slovenia can steal two points from the other. Expect the USA to beat Algeria and for it not to be an issue. Unless you like watching England walk over weaker teams, expect this to be a pretty boring group. Both the USA and Slovenia play very defensive football.
1) England, 2) USA, 3) Algeria, 4) Slovenia

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
Some have termed this the "other group of death" but it doesn't look THAT strong to me. Ghana, Australia, and Serbia all have solid teams, not to speak of Germany. England, of course, will be hoping Germany don't stutter at all in the group stage because if they do, it would set up a classic round-of-sixteen match between England and Germany. That should be incentive enough for the Germans to make quick work of the rest of the teams in the group. Ghana looks to have a bit of a thin lineup so despite their exceptional performance in 2006, don't expect too much noise from them, especially if Essien is injured. For as much as everyone has been talking about Australia, they don't look particularly good on paper. Tim Cahill and a reinvigorated Harry Kewell could cause damage, but it doesn't look like a team that's going to challenge any of the big guns, as they did Italy in 2006. Serbia look to be the best of the rest in this group. Any team with Vidic and Ivanovic anchoring the back line is going to be tough to beat, but they've got talent going forward too in Jovanovic and Zigic. That'll set up a lovely second-round match in witch Peter Crouch and Nikola Zigic and battle it out for most awkward looking footballer award.
1) Germany, 2) Serbia, 3) Australia, 4) Ghana

Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
This has to be the most fascinating group of the entire tournament (unless you're a fan of groups of death). Not one of these teams is even marginally bad. Nobody doubts the Dutch talent. A team that can but Robben, Sneijder, Van Bommel, Van der Vaart, and De Jong in the same midfield has a chance to win it all, but the Dutch were dealt an easy qualifying campaign and have never succeeded in the big matchs. I don't doubt their capacity to get out of the group stages, but I won't be surprised if they don't because all of these teams are capable of beating all the rest. Denmark have been turned into a top class outfit by coach Morten Olsen, and with Agger and Kjaer at the back and Sorenson in goal, it'll be tough to score on them. Bendtner may be downright comical in front of goal for Arsenal, but he's been a scoring machine for his country. A well managed, solid, team unit is a strong advantage that few teams have at the World Cup, but the Danes do, and it could well be the advantage that puts them through. That said, don't bet against a disciplined Japan side who's manager has said they should be thinking about reaching the semi-finals. Most of the European press have laughed that remark off as putting undue pressure on an underwhelming side, but if it provokes the desired reaction, Japan could be a tricky team. And what of Cameroon? Eto'o, Eto'o, Eto'o. Well that's all most people know about, but Bassong and Assou-Ekotto are good at the back, and Alex Song and Jean Makoun are excellent in midfield. And what of another Mallorquino player, Pierre Webó? He's been great for the Spanish islanders as well this season. With home field advantage, they might just go through.
1) Netherlands, 2) Cameroon, 3) Denmark, 4) Japan

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
This looks to be one of the most straight-forward groups at the tournament, but you never know. Italy are clearly the best side, despite an aging group of corps players, but they always start slow in World Cups (remember that 1-1 draw with the USA?). And New Zealand are really just there for the show. Slovakia might feel unlucky that Paraguay have drawn Italy in the first game, and it wouldn't be out of the real of possibility for Paraguay to beat Italy in that match. Look for Benfica striker Oscar Cardozo to make a lot of noise at the world cup, and if he does so, he could well be looking at himself in the jersey of one of the biggest clubs in the world come August. I'll be expecting Paraguay's attacking football to get them through to the next round, but don't expect Slovakia to go down without a great fight.
1) Paraguay, 2) Italy, 3) Slovakia, 4) New Zealand

Group G: Brazil, Ivory Coast, North Korea, Portugal
Poor Ivory Coast. Four years ago, people were talking about them as the best African side ever to go to the World Cup, but they were drawn with Argentina, the Netherlands, and Serbia and Montenegro, and were unfortunate not to get out of the group stage. The team has only gotten better in the last four years and is really on the same level as some of the biggest teams in the world now. With the brothers Touré and Didier Drogba, you don't need much else, but they've got a long list of talent that includes Emmanuel Eboue, Didier Zokora, Ndri Romaric, Aruna Dindane, and Salomon Kalou. I think being on African soil will give them the advantage they deserve to get out of this group at the expense of Portugal. Expect the whining brigade of Simao, Ronaldo, and Nani to be out in full force. They're a talented side, obviously, but Pepe, Miguel, and Ricardo Carvalho all starved for playing time for one reason or another, look for the back line to be a bit shaky. The first match between the Ivory Coast and Portugal will be the decider, but it'll be the decider for second place in the group. There might be two or three teams who can beat Brazil at this World Cup, but it doesn't look like any of the other three in this group will be capable. North Korea will be competing with New Zealand to avoid finishing last. Expect it to come down to goal difference.
1) Brazil, 2) Ivory Coast, 3) Portugal, 4) North Korea

Group H: Spain, Chile, Honduras, Switzerland
Spain will be clear favorites in this group, but it's another one that gets complicated after that. Chile, Honduras, and Switzerland all have decent sides, and don't expect any of those games to be a blowout. It wouldn't be inconceivable either that one of them could bring a tough game to Spain. Spain might have their eyes set on a potential second-round match-up with one of Brazil, Ivory Coast, or Portugal, and if they do, that could allow one of the other teams the break it needs to get the extra point and go through. Chile are a team solid throughout without any real standout players. They'll be suffering from added pressure after finishing second in CONMEBOL WCQ, and that could give the edge to a Swiss side who have a number of players (Inler, Fernandes, Huggel, Barnetta, N'Kufo, Derdiyok, Vonlanthen) who have more experience in big matches. I'll put my money on the Swiss finishing second as a means of compensating for their disappointing exit on home soil during the 2008 Euros. Honduras don't have a bad side, but their inexperience will get the better of them.
1) Spain, 2) Switzerland, 3) Chile, 4) Honduras

1 comment:

  1. Interesting predictions and a very bold one re: Portugal that I wouldn't make in my Portuguese neighborhood. I'm thinking Denmark to qualify over Cameroon...and Germany without Ballack will be a world of trouble in round two.

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