Saturday, July 2, 2011

Tour de France for Beginners- What to Watch and Predictions

It's July again already and that means it's time for the greatest event in the sport of cycling - the Tour de France. Since my most of my readership is almost certainly unacquainted with the sport of cycling and the finer points of the Tour de France, I thought I'd take this opportunity to pull out some of the things to watch for during the Tour this year. Cycling really is a wonderful sport to follow, and people who argue that it's boring and uninteresting usually just don't know of all the different things they could be paying attention to.

The Route: The Tour takes place over the course of 23 days, with 21 days of racing and 2 rest days. Each stage falls into one of five categories this year. The road stages, in which all the riders start together, are divided into plains (10), medium mountains (3), and high mountains (6), and in addition to these, there is one individual time trial (ITT) and one team time trial (TTT). In the time trial stages, the riders start spaced out and are tested only against the clock over a much shorter distance than a normal road stage would generally be. In the team time trial, the riders start with their teams. The total distance covered will be over 3,400 kilometers.

Competitions: In addition to the general classification (that's the overall victory that Lance Armstrong won seven times), there are several other competitions. Riders compete for the green points jersey. Points are accumulated at the end of every stage as well as in smaller numbers at an intermediate sprint point every day. More points are awarded on the flat plains stages than on mountain stages because there is a separate king of the mountains competition. On each categorized climb, which are cutely delineated 4 (the smallest), 3, 2, 1, and hors categorie (or beyond classification), points are awarded to the first riders across. More points, of course, are awarded for more serious climbs. The leader in this classification gets to look super-fresh in the polka-dot jersey. There is also a competition for the best young rider (25 and under), the leader of which wears the white jersey. And of course, each day, there is a winner of the individual stage.

Plains Stages: Most people who find cycling boring speak such blasphemy because of the plains stages. Admittedly, the plains stages offer a bit less drama than the mountain or time trial stages, but there is still an abundance of things to look for. As the peloton (group of cyclists) crosses the French countryside the vistas are nothing short of spectacular. Each day a helicopter accompanies the racers to get aerial shots of the riders and the villages and environment they pass through. If you're watching on Versus in the US, then you'll get to hear Paul Sherwin's lovely explanations of all the different chateaus and their histories. Frequently French fans design large artistic creations in fields for the cameras on the helicopter. The shots are truly breathtaking.

And of course, the race itself often does offer drama. On virtually every stage, a breakaway forms. It usually consists of anywhere between three and ten riders who break out of the peloton early. Although on flat stages this is frequently a doomed attempt from the get-go, the riders, often from some of the smaller teams, offer their sponsors valuable television coverage time, and it's always possible that some event, such as a crash, protesting French workers, or a herd of cattle, could keep the peloton from reeling the escapees back in. The teams of the sprinters - riders who contest only for stage wins at the end of flat stages - want to make sure that their sprinter is in the front group when the riders come to the line so they have a shot at the stage win. The flat stages are usually all about the sprinters, but usually there will be at least one day where the breakaway manages to stay away. This year, however, there are two or three "flat" stages that end with a little climb. This means that these stages could see some different riders contest the victories, such as today when Philippe Gilbert won the opening stage.

Medium Mountains: These are often long transition stages across rolling hills and can be some of the most exciting of the Tour. They are frequently won by the escapees because the sprinters' teams won't be sure their sprinters can make it over the medium mountains. It was on a long stage (230km) like this in 2006 that Oscar Pereiro made up 30 minutes on the race leaders and vaulted into the race lead. Stages 9 and 16 look to be the best stages for this year's breakaway artists. Stage 9 features no less than 7 categorized climbs and stage 16 passes over a relatively difficult category 2 climb just 11 km from the finish. If large breakaways form on either stage, it is unlikely they will be reeled back in.

High Mountains: This high mountains and the time trials are the only places where the overall classification can be won, and this year's route is very mountains-heavy. 4 of the high mountains stages feature summit finishes this year, and it is on these summit finishes that the biggest time gaps open. One bad day in the mountains can cost a rider anywhere from five minutes on upwards. On the steepest gradients, the riders competing for overall victory launch fierce attacks against their competitors to try and win valuable time.

Team Time Trial: The one team time trial this year takes place tomorrow, July 3, and is one of the most exciting stages of any Tour. Newcomers to the sport are often puzzled by how it is a team event, and the TTT is the perfect way to see the team dynamic in action. Most riders on the best teams never attempt to win anything; they are called domestiques. Their sole purpose is to aid their teammates, either for stage wins or for the general classification. The importance of having a solid team can never be underestimated.

Other things to look for: The devil. There is a very special fan who dresses up as the devil every day and waits near the end of the route. It's always fun to see him cheering the cyclists on. The Basque fans. As the riders enter the mountains, especially the Pyrenees, watch for the Basque fans. They frequently wear orange (the color of the all Basque Euskaltel-Eusakdi team) and wave the Basque red, white, and green flag. Crashes. If you're a sadistic type of person, the crashes are truly brutal. Already this year, one cyclist has died from a crash. It's not why I watch, but it's why some people do. The characters. Cyclists are crazy fellows, and sometimes if we're lucky, there can be some dynamic at the Tour that feels a little soap-opera-esque. The commentary. Paul Sherwin and Phil Liggett, the British commentators for Versus, the American broadcaster of the Tour, are nothing short of fantastic. I know of no other commentators who offer anything approaching the humor, insight, and articulation offered by these two.

And of course, the unexpected. Every year, something amazing happens. In 2007, Sandy Casar won a stage following a collision with a dog that left him with half of his bicycling shorts. That same year, Alberto Contador staved off powerful displays by Cadel Evans and Levi Leipheimer in the penultimate-day ITT to win his first ever Tour de France. Last year, Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador attacked each other time and time again on the Col du Tourmalet, and their fight ended in the most improbably of stalemates. Mark Cavendish has won 15 stages in only three years of racing Tours de France, moving into second all time for stage wins by a sprinter. And already this year, on what was supposed to be a benign stage, a crash with 8km to go left more than half the field blocked and resulted in three-time defending champion Alberto Contador being 80 seconds down to most of his rivals.

Now to my predictions:
Overall Classification Top Five: Contador, A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Gesink, Leipheimer
Points Classification Top Five: Farrar, Cavendish, Rojas, Petacchi, Bozic
King of the Mountains Top Five: Gesink, F. Schleck, S. Sanchez, Contador, A. Schleck
Young Rider Classification Top Five: Gesink, Van Garderen, Taaramae, Kreuziger, Mollema
Team Classification: Radio Shack, Leopard-Trek, Rabobank, Garmin-Cervelo, AG2R
Most Stage Wins: Mark Cavendish (3)

Days to watch: The Tour will most likely be decided on stage 19, on the climb to Alpe d'Huez. This is perhaps the most famous climb in all of cycling for its 21 switchbacks, which are nicely indicated in this photo. Stage 18 is among the most brutal in Tour history, however, as it climbs three hors categorie climbs in succession. Stage 12 also promises to be spectacular, as, after 11 days of mostly flat racing, the climbers will want to test their legs on this first foray into the high mountains. And as I said previously, the transition stages 9 and 16 should be spectacular. If you've never watched cycling before, pick one of those days, and commit to watching through the finish. If you think it's worthless, okay, but at least give it a shot.

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